November 3, 2004 – Paul Harstad is proud to announce that his firm’s only two candidates for U.S. Senate won, amidst major disappointment across-the-board for Democrats.  Both of the seats are pickups from the Republicans. 

Barack Obama has become the third African-American elected U.S. senator, and the first black Democratic man.  Obama has come a long way since Harstad’s first poll in 2002 showed him at 6% in the Illinois Democratic primary.  Obama faced a tough 7-way Democratic field, ultimately prevailing with 53% in March.  Though Obama could have defeated any Illinois Republican, against a controversial Republican he won with 70%, an all-time Illinois record for U.S. senator. 

Ken Salazar has become the third Hispanic elected to the U.S. Senate, bucking a 5% Bush win in Colorado .  He is the only new senator elected in 2004 contrary to his state’s presidential preference.  Salazar defeated beer magnate Pete Coors by a 51% to 47% margin.  The universally known and telegenic Coors was recruited because he was considered the Republicans’ most promising candidate and was able to put in more than $1 million of his own money.  Democrats had not won a Colorado race for governor or senator in a decade.

Most unfortunately, Salazar and Obama are the only two new incoming Democratic U.S. Senators as a result of the bleak 2004 election.

HARSTAD RESEARCH has extended its overall winning record for governor and U.S. senator to 10 out of 11 races — half of them open seats, and all but one tough races.  The firm’s winning record in initiative campaigns has grown to 20 out of 22.

HARSTAD RESEARCH also racked up a nearly-unbeaten record in other races this year:

•       Helped the Montana Democratic Party elect Brian Schweitzer for governor;

•       Won a hard-fought Colorado initiative to require 10% renewable electric energy;

•       Won a Montana initiative to raise tobacco taxes for health care coverage;

•       Won re-election of St. Paul Congresswoman Betty McCollum;

•       Helped the MTLA win a pivotal progressive seat on the Montana Supreme Court.

The firm’s sole loss this year was Texas Congressman Nick Lampson, whose C.D. was redistricted by Tom DeLay and the Texas Republican legislature.  The HARSTAD RESEARCH record in Texas congressional races has now declined to 14 wins and 1 loss — most of them tough races.

HARSTAD RESEARCH has also continued its remarkable pattern of stand-out victories in nearly every election cycle.  For example, in 2002, the Democrats won competitive seats for both governor and U.S. senator in only one state: Iowa , where Harstad has long polled and strategized for both Tom Vilsack and Tom Harkin.  Harkin has defeated more sitting congressmen and senators than any other senator in American history.  Coming from 7% behind to win by 8%, Vilsack was the only Democratic governor re-elected to a full term in 2002. 

Paul Harstad, of Boulder , Colorado , now polls for four Democratic U.S. senators, including Tom Harkin and Jack Reed of Rhode Island — more than any polling firm outside the D.C. Beltway.  Along with Paul Harstad, Mike Kulisheck directed polling for the Obama campaign and Chris Keating directed polling for the Salazar campaign.

Top of Page